A growing number of Arizona Republican political operatives remain unconvinced that former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is serious about running for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Krysten Sinema (I-AZ).
Most concede the former local television anchor is considered the most formidable opponent in a Republican primary if she should decide to run, however.
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Those close to Lake maintain she’s seriously considering a Senate bid. While Lake is still contesting the results of the Arizona governor race she lost, she appears to be plotting her next moves with several high-profile appearances. Lake is currently in Budapest, Hungary, participating in the Conservative Political Action Conference. Just this week, she announced the release of her memoir. Lake posted a photo to Twitter on Wednesday, stating, “Are you ready for the next chapter?”
The former Arizona gubernatorial candidate has popped up at former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate and met with Republican officials in Washington. A February swing through Iowa sparked speculation about whether she may be angling for a role as Trump’s running mate if he were to become the Republican nominee for president again. She’s also served as an enthusiastic surrogate for the former president.
This week, Lake senior adviser Colton Duncan told the Dispatch he’s “99% sure she’s going to run for Senate.” Duncan, a political operative from Texas who was with Lake every step of the way throughout her gubernatorial campaign, has made similar statements over the last couple of months.
“If I was a betting man, which I’m not, I’d bet the farm that Kari Lake ends up running for Senate,” Duncan told the Washington Post last month. “I’m 99% sure she’ll run, and if she does, I’m 100% certain she will win.”
However, Republicans involved in politics in the state think her most recent travel schedule signals the opposite.
“She’s more concerned about burnishing her national and international cred than paying attention to Arizona,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona-based GOP strategist. “She’s more apt to be seen at Mar-a-Lago than at the Biltmore,” Marson said, referring to a luxury resort in Phoenix.
Lake’s potential entrance into the race is expected to add an element of unpredictability to what is likely to be a three-way contest for the seat in the general election for the seat held by Sinema, the former Democrat who became an independent in December. Progressives are supporting Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who announced he’s running as a Democrat.
The race on the Republican side is still developing and could take longer to take shape as a result of Arizona’s filing deadline, which is next April. The state’s primaries aren’t until August 2024. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb became the first Republican to enter the race last month. Republican Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid last year by 5 percentage points, is still considering a run. So is Abe Hamadeh, who lost the 2022 attorney general’s race, Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the gubernatorial primary to Lake last year, and Republican businessman Jim Lamon, who lost in the primary for Arizona’s other Senate seat in 2022.
“She’s out running around in Iowa or Hungary or Mar-a-Lago. I mean, it’s still early; she can do all that stuff and run,” said a GOP operative based in Arizona. “She certainly isn’t acting like someone who’s putting together a Senate campaign in Arizona.”
While most of the Arizona political strategists the Washington Examiner spoke with admitted they don’t have any specific knowledge of Lake’s plans, they don’t think her recent moves line up with a candidate who has serious senatorial ambitions.
“My personal suspicion is that she won’t run, that she’s enjoying her celebrity status within the alt-right network, and she’ll continue to enjoy that and her ability to use her news background in ways to promote other candidates,” longtime Arizona political strategist Chuck Coughlin said.
By contrast, national Republicans in Washington are bracing for Lake to announce a Senate bid in the near future. Lake met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee in early February, and while it’s unknown what exactly played out in that meeting, Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) has made it clear that he is focused on recruiting candidates that can win general elections.
After a disappointing midterm election cycle, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, under the new leadership of Daines, appears to be more willing to take sides in Republican primaries in an attempt to recruit candidates who appeal to a wider electorate. It’s unclear what kind of sway they can have in a state where Lake remains popular with Arizona primary voters. A poll released by J. L. Partners last month found Lake receiving 38% support in an Arizona Senate GOP primary among registered Republican and undeclared voters, followed next by former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and developer Taylor Robson at 10%.
Those involved in Arizona politics believe national Republicans and those that invest in Senate races are feeling powerless in this situation and are not optimistic the state will move toward mainstream candidates that could lead them to victory.
“Kari Lake is going to do what she’s going to do. It doesn’t matter if we discourage her from running, that in all likelihood will do the opposite and backfire,” a Republican strategist based in Washington who requested anonymity to speak candidly said. “If she runs, Republicans lose. It’s that simple.”
Another Republican strategist with ties to Arizona said the electorate’s infatuation with right-leaning candidates who are unable to win the general election is causing national Republicans to take a back seat.
“This race would be a prime opportunity for Republicans to come in and wage a full-out campaign, but the dynamics are just an absolute turn-off for the NRSC and national groups,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “When I speak with national Republicans, they are just kinda resigned to it, knowing if she runs in the primary, she’ll win. Maybe after this, we’ll be done with her once and for all once she loses the general again.”
Others aren’t as confident Lake would win the primary if she decides to get into the race.
“She would be the favorite — I’m not denying that — but her popularity is slipping,” Marson said. “Arizona voters rejected Kari Lake when she should have easily won that governor’s race. What has changed this time around? The dynamics of a three-way race, but it’s still the same candidate.”
Lake’s next moves are nearly impossible to predict. Her Trump-aligned gubernatorial campaign was nontraditional, and her rise in a key swing state surprised political insiders in the state and the country. She’s known to be very involved in her campaign and had a small group of mostly young advisers who are from outside traditional Republican political circles. Her previous campaign had little in common with Republicans that ran before her, and she even alienated some voters when she repeatedly attacked the legacy of the late Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain, who is still well respected in the state.
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Republicans have now lost three of the most recent Senate races, as well as the last presidential and governor contests in a state that used to be a major GOP stronghold. With Sinema’s switch to an independent, Republicans see a prime opportunity to win this election with a plurality of the vote but worry they will have another missed opportunity if Lake runs and wins the primary.
Lake continues to embrace the former president and endorsed his 2024 presidential run. She also has shown no signs of softening her claims of a stolen election.
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Independents and unaffiliated voters have tripled over the last 30 years to 1.4 million and make up about a third of the voting population, reasons why many don’t believe Lake has a shot of winning a general election.
“They messed up in ‘18, ‘20, ‘22, and continue to go down this path of competing with this very narrow group of Republican voters, leaving a bunch of other Republican voters on the outside looking in,” Coughlin said. “I don’t have a belief that they have learned that lesson, they are still sniffing the Trump glue.”
