A significant number of ailment reports made in relation to the so-called Havana Syndrome are likely psychosomatic or the symptoms of other illnesses. Still, a 2022 intelligence community expert study found it plausible that some of the reported incidents had been caused by a pulse-burst electromagnetic device.
That bears note because the Russian government has the established means, tradecraft, and historic record of employing radio frequency devices to collect intelligence and cause physical harm. The U.S. intelligence community has documented as much.
CONGRESS TOLD OF LIKELY CHINESE SPY BALLOON THREAT AS EARLY AS 2019
That the intelligence community has now assessed, as the Washington Post first reported, that no Havana Syndrome reports are likely to be the result of a radio-frequency energy device is reflective of a fundamental failure of intelligence analysis. Taking advantage of the conventional illness or psychosomatic nature of some Havana Syndrome reports, the intelligence community “found no pattern or common set of conditions that could link individual cases.”
Put simply, by fixating on finding a common thread between all Havana Syndrome reports rather than examining the most credible and concerning reports better supported by intelligence reporting, the intelligence community has given itself analytical space to dispute all reports. This is a prime example of the overdue deference to bureaucratic comfort and overly exhaustive senior rank editing that too often defines U.S. intelligence analysis.
This finding isn’t ultimately about good intelligence analysis. Instead, it’s about the intelligence community’s fear of the foreign policy ramifications that would result from finding suspected Russian culpability. Proven itself incapable of confronting this concern, the U.S. intelligence community should ask its two closest intelligence partners, the UK and Australia, to conduct an independent investigation. It should share all available intelligence reporting to that effect.
The evidence for this intelligence failure is, in part, prima facie obvious.
Take the Washington Post‘s report that “The intelligence assessment also examined whether an adversary possessed a device capable of using energy to cause the reported symptoms. Of the seven agencies, five determined that it was ‘very unlikely,’ while the other two said it was ‘unlikely.'”
This is a very odd conclusion to make, seeing as the National Security Agency publicly admitted in 2014 that it had intelligence reporting indicating a foreign government [referencing Russia] “possessed high-powered microwave system weapon that may have the ability to weaken, intimidate, or kill an enemy over time and without leaving evidence.” I have also reported that the CIA has been briefed on the technical characteristics of a radiofrequency device that operates in the nanosecond pulse range, thus obfuscating nearly all means of effective counter-detection.
The intelligence community has worked hard to explain away the slate of Havana Syndrome reports as far as possible. For just one example, President George W. Bush and then-First Lady Laura Bush, and individuals in close proximity to their villa were afflicted by significant Havana Syndrome symptomatic ailments during the 2006 G-8 Summit in Germany. I understand from sources that the intelligence community did not re-investigate this incident following my December 2021 reporting on it.
Want to ignore Russia? Well, then, first, you need to consider Russia’s more recent rhetoric.
A 2012 Russian government paper reported possession of RF/MW capabilities “‘that influence the psycho-physical state of an individual with their fields and rays’ and bragged, ‘in a number of areas not long ago, our specialists were far ahead of the Americans.'”
A 2019 Russian army report, now removed from the internet, claimed that RF/MW weapons “have significantly decreased in size and can be installed on a tank turret and even at the head of a tactical missile … The [target] begins to hear non-existent noises and whistles … When exposed to low-frequency electromagnetic radiation, the human brain releases chemicals that regulate its behavior. [The RF/MW devices] can cause symptoms of various diseases…”
True, reports of Havana Syndrome have sharply dropped off since the start of the war in Ukraine. That gives the intelligence community breathing room to put this issue to bed.
For the time being. Given space, the Russians will advance.
