Ukrainian military successes over the past year haven’t broken “the foundation” of Russia’s military power, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who projected confidence as Western officials debate how to increase aid to Ukraine.
“There are several things that have not gone anywhere and that lie at the foundation of our victory,” Putin said Wednesday. “It is the unity and solidarity of the Russian people, the bravery and heroism of our fighters in the special military operation and on the front line, and, of course, the operation of the military-industrial complex, of enterprises such as yours.”
Putin insisted that Russia’s triumph in the war is “unavoidable” as he commemorated the lifting of the siege of Leningrad, as St. Petersburg was known in Soviet times, during the Second World War. His bullish statements came as Western officials press Germany to allow European countries that own German-made tanks to transfer them to Ukraine in advance of an expected Russian offensive this spring.
“We are afraid they are preparing for a new offensive on a few months, so it’s crucial to send additional support to Ukraine, specifically modern tanks and modern missiles,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
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Putin toured a factory in St. Petersburg on Wednesday and expressed confidence that the defense industry could keep pace with the “urgent demand” for weapons.
“Given that the defense industry is operating at full capacity and you are working in three shifts, as well as the urgent demand for its products, we are also considering granting deferment of military service to those who have to be called up for compulsory military service,” he said. “I think this issue will also be resolved soon.”
The Polish leader emphasized that Russian forces “are still very strong,” an acknowledgment that reflects Western misgivings that Russia could marshal new reservoirs of manpower and military equipment.
“If we want Ukraine to prevail, and they need the military strength,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday in Davos, “it’s very dangerous to underestimate Russia. They have mobilized 200,000 more troops. President Putin has demonstrated a will to just sacrifice thousands and thousands of young Russian soldiers. They are now acquiring more and more weapons, reaching out to other alternative regimes, including Iran, and they are planning new offensives.”
That assessment has put a diplomatic spotlight on Germany, which controls access to approximately 2,000 NATO-standard heavy tanks. Many of those Leopard 2 platforms are in the possession not only of Germany, but 13 other European states that have purchased the platforms, including Poland and several other states that have signaled their desire to donate some of their armor to Ukrainian forces.
“Our goal is to assemble a brigade from Leopard tanks,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week. “That’s for starters. Why Leopard? Because this is the tank that has been manufactured in Europe for decades and is in service with many European armies.”
Duda and other Western leaders have brought diplomatic pressure to bear on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has hesitated to greenlight the transfer of German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
“We are strategically interlocked, together, with our friends and partners, [and] we are discussing with them [to ensure] that we are never doing something just by ourselves, but together with others — especially the United States,” Scholz said Wednesday in his own appearance at Davos. “It is also clear that we will avoid that this is becoming a war between Russia and NATO.”
Scholz has felt that anxiety about a direct clash between Russia and the West for much of the last year. President Joe Biden likewise has refused to give certain kinds of aid that he thinks could provoke a retaliation from Russia, but U.S. officials have joined the throng of alliance officials endorsing the proposal.
“We believe the provision of modern tanks will significantly help and improve the Ukrainians’ ability to fight where they are fighting now and fight more effectively going forward,” White House National Security Council communications coordinator John Kirby said Wednesday.
Duda, the Polish president, cited the provision of Leopards as a way for Scholz to compensate for Germany’s miscalculations in relying on Russian natural gas over recent decades.
“Germany … created more instability and uncertainty in the first place,” he told Bloomberg during an interview in Davos. “Now, they should take bigger responsibility, they should help with weapons delivery to Ukraine even more, and I tried to persuade Olaf to do so, as quickly as possible.”
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Putin, for his part, insisted that Russia’s “efficient development and victory” is all but guaranteed. “It is ensured,” he said. “I have no doubts about that.”
