With less than a week before voting concludes in the general election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz are in a dead heat for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pat Toomey.
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll found both candidates at 47%, with 3% preferring neither candidate and 2% not sure.
In September’s poll, Fetterman held a five-point lead, 49%-44%.
“This is a very competitive race,” said pollster Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor. “From September it looks like it has been closed to the place where we have found it. It probably explains the incredible amount of attention being paid by both parties as they believe they can make this campaign ultimately successful in the end.”
Voting in the midterm elections, during which control of Congress is up for grabs, concludes Nov. 8. The Fetterman-Oz race could determine which party controls the Senate, which has been split 50-50 for the last two years.
In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro has maintained his double-digit lead over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. He has a 14-point margin, 54%-40%. Last month, Shapiro’s lead was 11 points, 53%-42%.
Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion interviewed 460 likely voters across the state Oct. 24-28. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
In the generic ballot for Congress, 48% said they intended to support a Republican, and 43% would support a Democrat. House races are being watched nationally because of the Democrats’ narrow majority. Pennsylvania will elect 17 representatives after losing one seat in the decennial redistricting process.
Last month, the GOP held a narrower generic lead, 46%-45%.
As has been a tradition in U.S. politics, the party not holding the White House usually makes gains in the midterm elections.
“It’s following the cyclical pattern that we so often see, and especially at the end of a race,” Borick said. “Our poll suggests that Republicans on the whole are gaining momentum in the state and I think there’s some indication that’s happening nationally.”
What that means for the 7th Congressional District seat in the Lehigh Valley is tough to say, Borick said, as he didn’t ask about individual districts for this poll. An October Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll showed U.S. Rep Susan Wild and Republican challenger Lisa Scheller in a tight race.
“We didn’t do this at the district level,” he said, “so I can’t apply it to the 7th or 8th congressional districts, but that broader environment is really going to make the work of Democrats in these swing districts hard. They’re fighting that head wind and the head wind seems to be intensifying for Democrats to cut through right now.”
The senate race
Oz, a former cardiothoracic surgeon and TV personality, has been narrowing the margin in recent weeks as ads have emphasized Fetterman’s record on crime, while Fetterman has continued to emphasize his fitness for the position as he recovers from a stroke in the spring.
The two met in a debate Oct. 25 and Fetterman struggled at points, leading to attack ads about his health. Democrats meanwhile focused on Oz’s comments that abortion should be between women, doctors and “local political leaders.”
Borick said Muhlenberg began making calls as the debate began and a portion of the sample didn’t see it before answering.
“I think it’s a little hard to discern, given the sample size for each day,” he said. “If you know the impact on Fetterman with the ads on his positions on crime, the debate certainly didn’t help his cause. It could clearly have contributed to the tightening that our poll and apparently other polls are finding.”
Fetterman leads by 1.1 points, 46.9%-45.8% in an average of recent polls, according to the data site fivethirtyeight.com. That margin has steadily tightened since mid-September, when Fetterman had a 10.2-point lead in the poll averages.
In the Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll, Oz has a 31% favorable rating with a 55% unfavorable rating; 11% didn’t have an opinion. Both the favorable and unfavorable ratings are up 2 points from last month.
Fetterman, a former AmeriCorps volunteer and mayor of Braddock, Allegheny County, was elected lieutenant governor for Wolf’s second term in 2018. He touts his work at revitalizing the steel town near Pittsburgh, which was considered one of the poorest in the state.
Fetterman has 45% favorability with voters, with 46% expressing disapproval and 8% having no opinion. While his favorability has edged up slightly, Fetterman’s unfavorability is up 5 points.
Among age groups, Oz has built a 57%-35% lead among voters ages 35-50. It’s a complete turnaround from September, when Fetterman led that group 55%-40%. Oz has also taken the lead among voters ages 51-64 with a lead of 51%-46% Fetterman led that group by 5 points last month.
The only group to switch to Fetterman are voters older than 65. He has a 51%-41% advantage after Oz led by 14 points last time.
Of those who answered “not sure” for the poll, 22% are leaning toward Oz, 7% toward Fetterman and 71% still aren’t sure.
Both have heavy support from party loyalists, with Fetterman holding a 87%-7% advantage among Democrats and Oz having a 87%-11% advantage with Republicans. Independent voters support Fetterman by an 11-point margin, 48%-37%, with 2% not sure and 14% supporting a different candidate.
“Republicans might be coming home to Oz, the slice that was a little hesitant, maybe didn’t vote for him in the primary,” Borick said. “Maybe his outsider image didn’t resonate with them. They seem to be tightening up going from 81% [in September] to 87%. That’s a sign that this is a part of his movement that he’s really been able to solidify Republicans right behind him. There’s at least a little bit of indication there as you get into the demographics; there’s a split among those with and without college degrees.”
Those with a degree support Fetterman, 56%-40%, those without prefer Oz, 54%-39%.
Fetterman has the support of female voters, 53%-43%, while male voters prefer Oz, 51%-43%. Last month, male voters broke in favor of Fetterman, 47%-45%.
The governor’s race
Among voters, Mastriano has a favorability rating of 28%, with 55% having an unfavorable view. Those without an opinion were at 14%. The percentage of those with an unfavorable view is up 7% in the past month.
Mastriano, a retired Army colonel from Franklin County who has been in the state senate since 2019, has been a favorite of conservatives and loyalists to former President Donald Trump after he led opposition to Gov. Tom Wolf’s COVID mitigation policies and helped organize efforts in Pennsylvania to submit alternate presidential electors beholden to Trump. He was outside the Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Mastriano has continued to run a base campaign with small gatherings with core supporters.
“The race looks a lot like it did last month,” Borick said. “The margins are even better for Shapiro and I think it’s an indication of the types of campaigns, the types of resources, and the fit with the electorate.
“This is, no doubt, a good environment for Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond to run in,” he said. “But that doesn’t guarantee you victory in the cycle. You have to have other pieces in place. And I think it’s fair to question whether the Mastriano campaign has those pieces in place. At this point, looking at our polls, and other polls it seems there’s not much evidence of that. Time’s running out.”
Shapiro has a 50% favorability rating among voters, with 31% having an unfavorable view, and 16% having no opinion. Those numbers are virtually the same as in September.
Shapiro, who also served as a state representative and a Montgomery County commissioner, has been a two-term attorney general and has defended in court Wolf’s COVID policies along with the state’s 2020 election results. He also led investigations into clergy sex abuse in the Catholic Church.
He’s picked up the support of several moderate Republicans, including former U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent. His campaign has run advertisements with endorsements from members of the law enforcement community.
While both candidates held big leads with voters within their respective parties, Shapiro has the support of 23% of Republicans, while Mastriano has the support of 5% of Democrats. Independents favor Shapiro, 46%-39%.
“Doug Mastriano will still get the overwhelming share of Republicans to support him, but he needs almost complete consensus in terms of them coming home,” Borick said. “We don’t see signs of that, and it might be even slipping away a little bit. I’ve said this a million times this campaign season, he has to secure the Republican vote. Shapiro’s right around that 90% mark for Democrats. That’s the math, and the math gets really hard to make it work.”
The poll found that among those answering “not sure” in the race, 24% were leaning toward Shapiro and 8% were leaning toward Mastriano and 68% still weren’t sure.
Shapiro enjoys a lead with voters with college degrees, 64%-33%, while those with no college degree support Mastriano by a narrower margin, 47%-45%.
Female voters broke for Shapiro by 28 points, 60%-32%, while the candidates were tied among male voters with 48% each.
Voting integrity
The poll asked what the biggest threat is to Pennsylvania’s having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2022.
Drawing the most concern was the suppression of individuals voting, which was considered the top issue among 26% of those polled. That was followed by the use of mail ballots, which was a concern for 24%, and voter fraud, which was a concern for 16%.
Other issues with the election were foreign interference (5%) and voting machines malfunctioning (3%). About 10% cited other factors and 15% weren’t sure.
Other poll takeaways
President Joe Biden’s approval rating was at 42%, with 53% disapproval and 5% with no opinion.
Gov. Tom Wolf had a 46% approval rating with a 43% disapproval with 11% having no opinion.
46% of the poll respondents said they voted for Biden in 2020, 45% said they voted for Donald Trump, 3% for a different candidate and 4% said they did not vote.
When asked how likely they will vote in November, 88% said “definitely” while 12% were “very likely.”
Morning Call reporter Evan Jones can be reached at ejones@mcall.com.
