While the West continues to fixate on Russia‘s claim that Ukraine is preparing to detonate a so-called “dirty bomb,” Russia may be preparing to launch a second invasion from Belarus to capture Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is feeling the pressure in Moscow. He needs to alter the strategic direction of the war in Russia’s favor. Still, Russian allegations of a Ukrainian dirty bomb plot could simply be a pretext for a preemptive strike. Putin has been busy trying to co-opt Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to join his war. At the same time, Russia is utilizing Iranian kamikaze drones to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and residential areas.
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Will Belarus come to Putin’s rescue?
Lukashenko has been complicit in Putin’s “special military operation” since its onset. He has allowed Russian ground forces to stage in Belarus and permitted ballistic missile launches against Ukraine within Belarus’s borders. Belarus has also tended to wounded Russian soldiers and repaired damaged Russian equipment. What’s new is the recently declared joint military group between Russia and Belarus. It has deployed to the Ukrainian border in response to an alleged Ukrainian threat. Of course, this defensive operation might simply be intended to justify a second northern front invasion of the country. With Kyiv just 140 miles south of the border, such an invasion might be the best non-nuclear option the Kremlin would have to incapacitate Ukraine. The two militaries have conducted numerous joint exercises together and share doctrine, equipment, and, most importantly, the same language.
Put another way, we shouldn’t get too distracted by all the dirty bomb rhetoric. The Russian leader may have another dirty surprise waiting.
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Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division and the Intelligence and Security Command. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
