Senate poised to approve stopgap measure to avoid government shutdown and fund Ukrainian military

CR ON PATH TO PASSAGE: The threat of a government shutdown eased last night as the Senate advanced a short-term continuing resolution, or CR, which would keep the government funded through Dec. 16.

The 72-23 vote last night cleared the way for debate after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) agreed to drop his provision aimed at expediting the permitting process for some major energy projects, citing his “firmly held belief that we should never come to the brink of a government shutdown over politics.”

“It is unfortunate that members of the United States Senate are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk,” Manchin said in a statement. “The last several months, we have seen firsthand the destruction that is possible as Vladimir Putin continues to weaponize energy. A failed vote on something as critical as comprehensive permitting reform only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail.”

“While the permitting reform proposal from Senator Manchin was dropped from this bill, I agree that we still need to take sensible steps to reduce European dependence on Russian energy while maintaining an affordable and resilient supply here at home,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) in a statement

Fellow Virginia Democrat, Sen. Tim Kaine, had threatened to vote against the funding measure because it would have fast-tracked the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, 100 miles of which runs through Virginia. Warner said last week the “process around the Mountain Valley Pipeline stinks,” but he promised to support permitting reform.

DOD ON SHORT END OF CR SHOWDOWN: The House Appropriations Committee yesterday released a summary of the provisions of the continuing resolution, or CR, which, as usual, freezes Pentagon spending at the current level, delaying a $75 billion increase in defense spending for at least two and a half months while barring the Defense Department from starting any new programs, accelerating current programs, or initiating multiyear procurements.

With inflation running high, the delay in providing full funding will result in the Pentagon losing an estimated $6 billion in military purchasing power a month, according to retired Marine Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, chairman of the National Defense Industrial Association.

“The current version of the CR effectively tables any of the bipartisan agreed-upon increases to defense spending for months — money that is sorely needed to address all of the challenges we face, from inflation to Russia’s war in Ukraine to China’s threats against Taiwan,” Punaro, a former staff director for the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the Washington Examiner.

UKRAINE WELL TAKEN CARE OF: The bill is packed with provisions to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia, so much so the legislation’s name, the “Continuing Appropriations and Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act,” gives Ukraine equal billing.

Among the $15 billion in Ukraine-related funding provisions:

• $3 billion in direct military assistance to Ukraine assistance, including training, equipment, weapons, logistics support, supplies and services, and salaries
• $4.5 billion in direct economic support to fund Ukraine’s national government and provide basic citizen services
• $3.7 billion in drawdown authority to send weapons from U.S. stocks to Ukraine
• $1.5 billion to replenish U.S. stocks of equipment, including $540 million to increase production of critical munitions 
• $2.8 billion for the U.S. European Command to support operations, including special duty pay for U.S. troops deployed to the region 
• $2 million for the Office of Inspector General to provide oversight on how the funds are spent

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Hawaii, where he will meet with his counterparts from the Philippines, Japan, and Australia at the headquarters of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

Austin will first make a stop in California, where he’ll meet with sailors and Marines at Naval Base Point Loma and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, the Pentagon said in a news release.

NOT HAPPENING TODAY: The House Select Committee to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the Capitol has decided to postpone this afternoon’s public hearing because Hurricane Ian will be dominating media coverage during the 1 p.m. hour, when the committee was hoping for live coverage.

“In light of Hurricane Ian bearing down on parts of Florida, we have decided to postpone,” the committee said in a tweet. “We’re praying for the safety of all those in the storm’s path.”

Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-MS) told CNN last week the next hearing will likely be the last before it issues a final report at the end of the year.

“I can say that unless something else develops, this hearing at this point is the final hearing. But it’s not in stone because things happen,” said Thompson. “We have substantial footage of what occurred that we haven’t used. We’ve had significant witness testimony that we haven’t used in other hearings. So this is an opportunity to use some of that material.”

CNN has been airing clips from A Storm Foretold, a Danish documentary in which the filmmakers followed Republican operative Roger Stone for weeks before the 2020 election.

In one segment, Stone, who was pardoned by Donald Trump after he was sentenced to 40 months in prison for lying to Congress and obstructing its investigation of the former president, can be heard explaining the plan to allege fraud by the Democrats if Trump lost the election.

“What they’re assuming is the election will be normal. The election will not be normal,” Stone says, channeling the arguments that would be made to dispute the results. “These are the California results. Sorry, we’re not accepting them,” he says. “We’re challenging them in court. If the electors show up at the Electoral College, armed guards will throw them out. I’m the president. (muted) you. You’re not stealing Florida. You’re not stealing. I’m challenging all of it.”

NO SURPRISE HERE: The results of Russia’s forced referendums in four regions of Ukraine are in, and as expected, pro-Moscow officials have declared that residents of the occupied areas voted overwhelmingly to join Russia.

The U.S. permanent representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe called the elections a “sham” and a “propaganda stunt.”

“I think you’ll see there’s actually a direct link between the Kremlin’s systematic hollowing out of democratic institutions and its, frankly, ridiculous effort to mimic a democratic process at the barrel of a gun,” said Amb. Michael Carpenter.

RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED UKRAINE VOTES TO JOIN FEDERATION IN WHAT US CALLS ‘SHAM’ REFERENDUMS

STOP THE STEAL: In a speech to the United Nations Security Council via video link, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the rigged vote “an attempt to steal the territory of another state” and said if Russia follows through with its annexation effort, it would preclude any negotiation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Russia’s recognition of these sham referenda as allegedly normal, implementation of the so-called Crimean scenario, and another attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine will mean that there is nothing to talk about with this president of Russia,” Zelensky said. “Annexation is the kind of move that pits him alone against the whole of humanity.”

The emergency meeting of the Security Council was called at Ukraine’s request, and Zelensky spoke over the objections of Russia.

PUTIN MAY ANNOUNCE ANNEXATION OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY IN SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT

META TAKES DOWN FAKE FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND INSTAGRAM ACCOUNTS: Facebook’s parent company Meta announced yesterday that it has removed “inauthentic” accounts based in China and Russia that were seeking to influence U.S. politics ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

“The Chinese-origin influence operation ran across multiple social media platforms, and was the first one to target US domestic politics ahead of the 2022 midterms and Czechia’s foreign policy toward China and Ukraine,” the company said in a statement. “The Russian network — the largest of its kind we’ve disrupted since the war in Ukraine began — targeted primarily Germany, France, Italy, Ukraine and the U.K. with narratives focused on the war and its impact through a sprawling network of over 60 websites impersonating legitimate news organizations.”

The company released a 30-page report detailing the investigation of violations of its policy against what it calls “coordinated inauthentic behavior.”

The report cited examples of how President Joe Biden and Sen. Marco Rubio were targeted with negative memes, but it noted, “None of the operation’s US-facing Pages had more than a handful of followers.”

IS CHINA FARMING OR SPYING IN GRAND FORKS? More than 50 Republican members of Congress led by Florida Reps. Carlos Gimenez and Mike Waltz are warning about the “alarming” acquisition of farmland in North Dakota by a Chinese-based manufacturer with close links to the Chinese Communist Party, citing the farm’s proximity to Grand Forks Air Force Base.

“The presence of a CCP-affiliated corporation near a military installation potentially undermines the integrity of our high-capability military bases, jeopardizing our strategic interests,” the GOP lawmakers wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “The move raises concerns about the CCP’s ability to conduct espionage operations on U.S. military installations and jeopardizing U.S. strategic interests.”

“At a time when the United States is engaged in great power competition with China, we must utilize every tool at our disposal to protect and defend the integrity of our military and national security, maintain military dominance, and maximize our global military readiness.”

HOUSE GOP WARNS OF ‘ALARMING’ CHINA-LINKED PURCHASE OF FARMLAND NEAR AIR BASE

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russian-occupied Ukraine votes to join federation in what US calls ‘sham’ referendums

Washington Examiner: Putin may announce annexation of Ukrainian territory in speech to parliament

Washington Examiner: Pentagon confirms Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: EUCOM commander: ‘Unprecedented level of alliance planning’ by NATO for Ukraine war

Washington Examiner: Military responsible for roughly a dozen civilian deaths in 2021, Pentagon says

Washington Examiner: Navy’s most advanced surface warship embarks on Asia tour

Washington Examiner: Justice Department argues Trump should organize seized documents in new filing

Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Stunning photos show aftermath of NASA spacecraft’s collision with asteroid

Washington Examiner: House GOP warns of ‘alarming’ China-linked purchase of farmland near air base

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Do European Union leaders want Trump reelected? Their Ukraine freeloading suggests so

Washington Post: European leaders blame Russian ‘sabotage’ after Nord Stream explosions

New York Times: C.I.A. Warned European Governments Of Potential Attacks On Undersea Pipelines

AP: European Union vows retaliation if energy network attacked

AP: Over 194,000 Russians flee call-up to neighboring countries

New York Times: As Russians Flee, Some Find Draft Notices Waiting at the Border

Reuters: New $1.1 Bln U.S. Arms Package For Ukraine In Process -U.S. Officials

Reuters: U.S. VP Harris Condemns ‘Disturbing’ Chinese Actions In Japan Speech

Air & Space Forces Magazine: China ‘Knows What It’s Doing,’ Pursuing Fighter Similar to NGAD, Kelly Says

Washington Post: Solomon Islands Rejects Biden’s Pacific Outreach Amid China Challenge

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown: Air Force May Never ‘Slap the Table’ on ACE

Bloomberg: F-35’s New $412 Billion Cost Estimate Is a Modest Increase By Its Standards

Stars and Stripes: Marines To Send F-35Bs To Philippines, Fire HIMARS There And In Japan Next Month

Yonhap: USS Ronald Reagan In S. Korean Waters For Routine Exercise: Pentagon

USNI News: Carrier USS Nimitz Still Sidelined Over Fresh Water Contamination

19fortyfive.com: Tempest 6th Generation Fighter: What You Need To Know

19fortyfive.com: Is a Coup Against Vladimir Putin Possible?

19fortyfive.com: Putin Will Soon Have His Reason to Escalate in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Is Russia Getting Ready for a Nuclear War over Ukraine?

19fortyfive.com: Tempest 6th Generation Fighter: What You Need To Know

19fortyfive.com: Putin Should Worry: Ukraine Captured Russia’s Elite T-90M Tank

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 28

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “Afghanistan One Year Later,” with Special Representative for Afghanistan and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas West https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-thomas-west

9:30 a.m. — McCain Institute at Arizona State University virtual event: “Meet the People Helping Prosecute War Crimes in Ukraine,” with Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice; Amb. Clint Williamson, lead adviser, EU-UK-US Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group; Evelyn Farkas, executive director, McCain Institute; Roman Avramenko, executive director, Truth Hounds; Andrea Cayley, coordinator, EU-UK-US Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group; Scott Martin, founder, Global Justice Advisors; Nataliya Zubar, chairwoman, Maidan Monitoring Information Center; and Pedro Pizano, human rights and democracy program manager, McCain Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-people-helping-prosecute-war-crimes

9:30 a.m. — Center for European Policy Analysis virtual CEPA forum: “Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads,” with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov; Wendy Sherman, U.S. deputy secretary of state; Slovak President Zuzana Caputova; Stefano Sannino, secretary-general, European External Action Service; Brian Nelson, Treasury Department undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); and others. Full agenda: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum/agenda/ Register: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum

10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Keeping the Pressure on Russia and its Enablers: Examining the Reach of and Next Steps for U.S. Sanctions,” with testimony from James O’Brien, head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination, U.S. Department of State; and Elizabeth Rosenberg, assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, Department of the Treasury https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/keeping-the-pressure-on-russia

10 a.m. — East-West Center in Washington virtual discussion: “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea-Germany Relations: An Ambassador’s Perspective on Diplomacy with Pyongyang,” with former German Ambassador to the DPRK Thomas Schaefer; Esther Im, program manager at the National Committee on North Korea; and Satu Limaye, director of the East-West Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: with former Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister Hoshyar Zebari on “the unfolding political situation in Iraq, Erbil-Baghdad relations, and the security situation in Iraqi Kurdistan.” https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-he-hoshyar-zebari

11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “A Decisive Moment in Ukraine,” with Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Eugene Rumer, director of the CEIP Russia and Eurasia Program; Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow; and Andrew Weiss, CEIP vice president of studies https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/28/carnegie-connects

11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group Virtual event: “State of Defense: Space Force,” with Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond https://d1stateofdefense.com

3:30 p.m. 1615 H Street N.W— U.S. Chamber of Commerce “U.S.-Israel Strategic High-Level Dialogue on Technology Business Forum,” with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan; Israeli national security adviser Eyal Hulata; Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog; and Tarun Chhabra, senior director for technology and national security for the National Security Council https://events.uschamber.com/TechDialogueChamber

3:30 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Establishing and Fortifying U.S. National Security Supply Chains,” with Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH); Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA); Edlyn Levine, co-founder and chief science officer at America’s Frontier Fund; and Gilbert Kaplan, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.hudson.org/events

4 p.m. 957 E Street N.W.— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “What’s Next in Foreign Affairs: Challenges to Democracy Around the World,” with Daniel Twining, president of the International Republican Institute https://calendar.gwu.edu/whats-next-foreign-affairs-challenges

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 29

9 a.m. — Center for European Policy Analysis concludes virtual three-day CEPA forum: “Meeting the Moment: Allies at a Crossroads,” with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL); Sen. James Risch (R-ID); James Foggo, distinguished fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; and others. Full agenda: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum/agenda/ Register: https://cepa.org/events/cepa-forum

10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation Subcommittee hearing: “Assessing the Biden Administration’s U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa.” https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings

3 p.m. — Center for American Progress virtual discussion: “The crisis in Ukraine, competition with China, human rights, and the role of the U.S. in the world,” with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall https://www.americanprogress.org/events/a-conversation-with-air-force-secretary